A value investing podcast. Antipodes is an active global equities investment manager, with offices in Sydney and London. Hear from the Antipodes team and other external thought leaders as they deliver investment updates and share perspectives on companies, macroeconomic trends and investment opportunities across the globe.
Episodes
Tuesday Nov 07, 2023
Tuesday Nov 07, 2023
Along with a discussion about the state of the markets in Q3 2023 and Antipodes' current portfolio positioning, this episode covers the recent developments in the global oil market amid the escalation of conflict between Israel and Hamas.
Alison Savas (Antipodes Investment Director) is joined by Graham Hay (Antipodes Portfolio Manager Industrial, Hardware & Commodities) for this episode.
Key times:
- Current oil market dynamics & the implications of lower capital expenditure in recent years: 1:00
- How Iran could hold the world's oil market to ransom if the Israel - Hamas conflict widens: 3:40
- Why US sanctions on Russian crude are ultimately ineffective: 5:30
- How Saudi Arabia could respond to an oil supply shortfall: 7:15
- The Chinese oil demand puzzle: 10:10
- Antipodes' view on the outlook for the crude oil price: 13:30
- Antipodes' energy exposures (TotalEnergies & Occidental Petroleum)*: 15:00
PART 2
- The state of the markets in Q3 2023: 18:00
- Why it's unlikely a supportive liquidity environment can be maintained: 21:10
- A mild recession in the US remains likely: 25:00
- Antipodes' portfolio positioning: 27:30
*Stock commentary is illustrative only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security.
Wednesday Oct 11, 2023
Wednesday Oct 11, 2023
In this episode Alison Savas speaks with Benoit Bazin, the CEO of French-listed building materials manufacturer Saint-Gobain (EPA: SGO)*.
Saint-Gobain (a holding in Antipodes' global portfolios) operates in 76 counties and is playing a major role in making the construction and building industries more sustainable.
It might surprise you that the construction and building industries account for 40% of global carbon emissions - that’s more than the global transportation sector.
Key Times:
- Overview of Saint-Gobain: 1:30
- The global market for sustainable construction materials: 5:30
- 75% of Europe's buildings are energy inefficient: 11:30
- Saint-Gobain's competitive advantages : 21:30
- How Saint-Gobain is helping other industries decarbonise (low-carbon concrete & electric vehicle glazing): 27:30
- The housing market & housing shortages: 33:30
*Stock commentary is illustrative only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security.
Thursday Aug 31, 2023
Thursday Aug 31, 2023
At around 11x times forward earnings, UK equities are the cheapest they’ve been since the 2008 financial crisis (apart from COVID), and they are the cheapest in the developed world.
In this episode, Alison Savas and James Rodda discuss the UK macro environment and Antipodes' three largest UK-listed holdings; Diageo, Tesco, and NatWest.
Key Times:
- Inflation in the UK & macro outlook: 1:30
- Diageo (LON: DGE): 6:30
- Tesco (LON: TSCO): 13:40
- NatWest Group (LON: NWG): 21:20
Stock commentary is illustrative only and not a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security.
More about Antipodes: antipodes.com
Thursday Aug 03, 2023
Thursday Aug 03, 2023
The recent stock market rally has become increasingly unbalanced.
The NASDAQ is up almost 40% this year and just 10% off its all-time highs. But it’s the seven largest US tech stocks which have contributed half of the performance in global equities this quarter and calendar year.
In this quarterly update episode, Alison Savas (Investment Director) and Rameez Sadikot (Portfolio Manager) discuss what this narrow performance in equities really means, along with how the macro backdrop could impact markets.
Key times:
- Examining stock market performance over the past quarter: 1:00
- Valuations indicating little margin for error as investors price clear skies: 5:30
- Recession looming? 8:00
- Antipodes' current portfolio positioning: 14:30
- Heineken N.V. (AMS: HEIA): 18:30
- Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN): 20:30
- TotalEnergies SE (EPA: TTE): 28:10
*Stock commentary in this episode is illustrative only and should not be considered as recommendations to buy, hold, or sell any security.
Thursday Jul 13, 2023
Thursday Jul 13, 2023
Ian Harnett is a co-founder and chief investment strategist of Absolute Strategy Research (ASR) one of only a handful of highly regarded independent global macro research firms.
In this conversation with Alison Savas, Ian discusses why he believes the west has a "vanishingly small" chance of avoiding recession, but explains how a new source of liquidity in global markets could be a game changer.
He also shares his views on stock market valuations and one big risk factor he believes most are overlooking.
Key times:
- Can the US & the West sidestep recession? 02:20
- The critical data points ASR is monitoring closely 05:30
- Can the Fed restore balance in the labour market? 8:50
- Non-bank financials & the liquidity crunch: 11:10
- Outlook for non-residential investment and fiscal deficits: 16:00
- Why US equities are overvalued: 20:30
- Valuations of European and Chinese equities: 21:30
- Can China keep growing? 22:30
- The big risk investors are overlooking in today’s market: 28:10
Wednesday Jun 14, 2023
Wednesday Jun 14, 2023
It was the reopening many investors thought could bring a spectacular stock market resurgence. But the interest in Chinese equities following the end of COVID lockdowns has faded. The domestic recovery has been slower than expected and exports continue to be weighed down by economic deterioration in the West.
But John Stavliotis (Lead PM of Antipodes' Emerging Markets strategy) and Alison Savas (Investment Director) explain why investors should hold the line on China, and discuss three Chinese stocks to watch.
Key times:
- Observations from inside China: 01:00
- What is holding back the Chinese economy? 03:20
- Will there be a policy response? 7:00
- The longer-term growth drivers for China's economy: 9:00
- Geopolitics & China's role in a multipolar world: 15:30
- Chinese stock market valuations & allocating to China 20:40
- Stock discussion - Midea Group (SHE: 000333): 23:20
- Stock discussion - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co (SHE: 300750): 26:00
- Stock discussion - Galaxy Entertainment Group (HKG: 0027): 29:20
More about Antipodes: https://antipodes.com/
Follow Antipodes on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/antipodes-partners/
Stock commentary you hear in this episode is illustrative only and not a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security.
Thursday May 04, 2023
Thursday May 04, 2023
Despite the uncertainty following the largest bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis, global equities were on the up in the first quarter of 2023, with index performance saved by mega-cap tech as the market bets we are on the cusp of the closely-watched Fed pivot.
But will the pivot come as quickly as the market expects and will the outcomes be as the market expects?
In this quarterly market update, Alison Savas and Antipodes CIO, Jacob Mitchell, review the key events of Q1 2023 and provide listeners an insight into the Antipodes' team broader market outlook and portfolio positioning.
They also discuss three stocks to navigate this complex market and macro environment - Sanofi (EPA: SAN), TotalEnergies (EPA: TTE) & Midea Group (SHE: 000333).
Key times:
- Can the Fed still engineer a soft landing? 01:00
- The impacts of the banking crisis in the real economy: 05:10
- The disconnect between the top down and bottom up in the US: 11.20
- Why Europe and China are relatively better positioned: 16.30
- Broader portfolio positioning against current macro backdrop: 19:50
- Sanofi: a big cap pharma that’s insensitive to the economic cycle 23:30
- TotalEnergies: conventional energy with a transition angle 27:30
- Midea: an emerging Chinese multinational 32:10
More about Antipodes: https://antipodes.com/
Follow Antipodes on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/antipodes-partners/
Stock commentary you hear in this episode is illustrative only and not a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security.
Sunday Apr 02, 2023
Sunday Apr 02, 2023
Following the recent bank crises in the US and Europe, Alison Savas and James Rodda discuss the vulnerabilities that remain within global financials, along with the relative winners and losers that could emerge.
The episode also covers potential investment opportunities given the dislocation in US and European financials, including insights into our portfolio holdings UniCredit (BIT: UCG) and ING Group (AMS: INGA).
Key times:
- The unravelling of Silicon Valley Bank: 02:25
- The consequences of the SIVB crisis & longer term impacts on the banking system: 06:30
- The winners a losers in the global banking system moving forward: 14:00
- Credit Suisse and the European banking system: 17:50
- Looking for buying opportunities in global financials: 22:30
- What all this means for the Fed's next move: 25:40
More about Antipodes: https://antipodes.com/
Follow Antipodes on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/antipodes-partners/
Stock commentary you hear in this episode is illustrative only and not a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security.
Wednesday Mar 08, 2023
Wednesday Mar 08, 2023
Siemens Energy (ETR: ENR) is a global leader in wind turbines, utility-scale gas turbines, and grid transition equipment.
In this episode, Siemens Energy CEO, Dr Christian Bruch, provides insights into the demand for wind energy (in particular offshore wind), the role of gas, and shares perspectives on the challenges the world faces in the transition to net zero along with the enormous scale of investment that's required.
Key times:
- The net zero ‘trilemma’ & are the targets achievable? – 02:40
- The critical role of wind energy – 06:00
- Bottlenecks in delivering sufficient offshore wind infrastructure – 12:10
- Profitability of wind projects – 18:20
- The role of gas in decarbonisation – 27:30
- The enormity of the energy grid investment required to facilitate net zero targets – 31:00
Individual stock commentary is illustrative only and not a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security.
Antipodes website: antipodes.com
Antipodes on Linkedin: Antipodes Partners
Sunday Feb 05, 2023
Sunday Feb 05, 2023
Alison Savas is joined by Rameez Sadikot, Portfolio Manager and head of Antipodes Quant, Macro and Currency.
In part 1 (1:00 - 15:00), Alison and Rameez discuss the state of global equities - including Antipodes' views on markets and the macro in the US, Europe and China.
In part 2 (15:00 - 27:00), the discussion turns to gold. After a lacklustre performance through most of 2022, investors are once again beginning to pay attention to gold. Alison and Rameez share Antipodes' views and due diligence.
Finally, hear the investment case for Australian gold mining giant, Newcrest Mining (ASX: NCM)* (27:00 - 30:00).
*Individual stock commentary is illustrative only and not a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security.
Antipodes website: antipodes.com
Antipodes on Linkedin: Antipodes Partners